The Chinese Spy Balloon: A Gross Failure of the National Command Authority Op-Ed
The Chinese Trolled Biden and Won
The Chinese Spy balloon ambled across the U.S. and the Biden administration did nothing about it. I have spoken in recent days to several different former military aviation intel experts. All agreed it was a shameful and “gross failure of National Command Authority,” according to Col. Don Jenkins.
Politically, on the Chinese side, it was an epic troll of the Biden administration, humiliating and dangerous.
On the administration/military side of the equation, decisions were made that potentially jeopardized our national security. I wrote a primer on some of this for UncoverDC here. It may be that the Chinese were innocently tracking weather patterns instead of collecting intel. However, it is certain the Chinese understood the optics extremely well. Psychological warfare is among their greatest specialties. The Chinese understood this was a low-risk adventure with the Biden administration at the helm. I asked General Flynn to give me his input on the incident and the Chinese. This is what he said, “The Chinese constantly probes us for weaknesses in our emotional, intellectual and physical defenses…with this single balloon incursion, they’ve discovered all three points of weakness.”
The former military people with whom I have spoken unanimously assert the balloon should have been shot down before it entered U.S. airspace. Col. Don Jenkins, whose military service resumé gives him ample bona fides to speak on the subject shared the following, “It should have been destroyed as soon as NORAD determined it was going to penetrate US airspace.”
During his service, Jenkins held both intelligence and aviation credentials and was commissioned in the Military Intelligence Corps. His colleague, MSG Jack Dona, U.S. Army (Retired) shared that there were other options for its disposal that would have been much more protective of our national interests. *To be clear, none of the material and/or notes referenced here are classified. All of the information is open source. None of the information here jeopardizes our national security.
On the other hand, the way the Biden administration handled the surveillance balloon did threaten our national security. The administration appeared to be chaotic and weak in its response. The idea that our military did not or could not know about the spy balloon prior to its “unintended” flight that went off course because of “Force Majeure” is nothing short of preposterous. Unfortunately the administration allowed the statement to stand. In fact, the Biden administration admitted it knew about the balloon before it entered U.S. airspace.
As such, Biden and the U.S. defense department allowed the Chinese to control the narrative, at our own expense. The administration was entirely defensive in its response, effectively chasing a spectacularly ridiculous narrative controlled by the Chinese. It seems Biden expected Americans would buy the talking points. Frankly, as is often the case, he treated the American public as if we are ignorant idiots, incapable of forming a single coherent hypothesis. The Biden administration's response was perfectly emblematic of elitist thinking. “We will tell them what to believe and those plebeians will buy it in whole cloth. Let them eat cake!” Even people with half a brain cell can figure this stuff out.
Everyday Americans Are Not Stupid
I can confidently assert that the vast majority of Americans know full well how to smell a rat. I am also of the opinion that America will pay the price for Biden’s response both politically and defensively in the years to come. There are many who are much smarter than I who agree. Give Brig. Gen. Robert Spalding a follow. He knows his stuff.
I sincerely doubt Biden’s treatment of the threat was naive. Given what is known about Hunter’s laptop and Biden’s resulting vulnerability to blackmail by foreign entities and countries; it is more likely the Chinese (and Ukraine) have significant political and strategic leverage the average American does not fully appreciate.
When history is written, Biden will be seen as President who repeatedly risked national security because of his own compromised activities. There is nothing worse than allowing the Chinese Communist Party to think you are weak.
The Chinese are uncommonly strategic and remarkably patient. Biden is their perfect tool. Unfortunately, he is the President and Americans are powerless to change the perception at this point in time. The worst part is that our own military, in its highest and best form, is painfully aware of the way the Chinese operate to secure their own interests. Even with that knowledge base, America often fails to capitalize on its own strategic strengths. Corporate America has also profoundly compromised our national security by moving so much of its manufacturing capability offshore to China. The Chinese are doggedly committed to capitalizing on our poor choices. Moreover, we often act as though they want nothing more than to be our strategic partners and close friends.
Why a Surveillance Balloon?
I could make this whole column a discussion of the difference between the way the Chinese and Americans think in situations like this one. However, the intricacies about the political and philosophical machinations of the Chinese/American dust up are better left to a column that is dedicated for that purpose. There are white papers and hundreds of books written on the subject by people with greater expertise than I possess. However, my studies at Georgetown and having lived in the region, I do understand a fair amount about how the Chinese think. My husband and father have had long careers crafting deals with the Chinese and other cultures in the region. I have been privy to many conversations about the way the Chinese form relationships both personally and professionally. The contrast between Asian and European thought processes could not be more diametrically opposed. To not understand the difference is political suicide. Criticize Trump as you may, he seemed to understand the Chinese and their ultimately pragmatic approach to foreign relations. I have covered some of the issues here because context is important.
The real purpose of this column, however, is to share what I have learned about surveillance balloons and American military capablity. Two experts have stepped forward to share their speculative thoughts about the Chinese balloon payload—what it might have held/and or deployed on its maneuvered trek across the country.
They also shared their thoughts about Biden’s response to the incident, none of which are favorable to him. First and foremost, they pointed out that the advantage of this type of relatively inexpensive and “primitive” surveillance apparatus is that it moves slowly and can linger over sensitive sites, as we witnessed when it stalled over military sites in Montana. This type of surveillance balloon is also arguably less detectable by radar. In that vein, I will cut to the chase and share what I have learned from people who know how profoundly misguided this administration was in its response to the Chinese surveillance dirigible.
Persistent Threat Detection Systems
The balloons used by our defense forces for surveillance are primarily tethered. They are used in a wide range of military missions, including to secure our borders. They are Persistent Threat Detection Systems (PTDS), or “large helium-filled lighter than air system designed by Lockheed Martin to provide soldiers with long-range intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR) and communication assistance.” Untethered dirigibles are largely discontinued in part because of the deadly USS Akron disaster.
MSG Jack Dona, U.S. Army (Retired) prepared extensive notes for me with regard to the surveillance event. He is eminently qualified to comment. He held a TOP SECRET-TS/SCI (SSBI) clearance until February 2014 and held positions with higher clearance when necessity dictated. He has 33 years working for the DOD and with the civilian sector as an IEW Systems Engineer. Among many other qualifications too numerous to list here, he was a Senior C4ISR Engineer/Intelligence and Electronic Warfare Senior Systems Tecnician trained to “ troubleshoot, maintain, and repair intelligence systems and related computer platforms/networks.” His technical experience is pictured below.
According to Dona, these surveillance systems have been around since the Civil War. According to unclassified DOD definition, “persistent surveillance is a collection strategy that emphasizes the ability of some collection systems to linger on demand in an area to detect, locate, characterize, identify, track, target, and possibly provide battle damage assessment and re-targeting in near or real-time. Persistent surveillance facilitates the formulation and execution of preemptive activities to deter or forestall anticipated adversary courses of action.”
What Could be in a Balloon’s Payload?: Threats to NatSec
Dona shared that it is his
“technical opinion that these CCP balloons were likely controlled via long range radio encrypted signals. They did this on the cheap. The solar array on the dirigibles appears to be some type of rudimentary power source to provide energy to a rudimentary navigation system, communications and to control the gondola-payload electronic activities. There is a remote possibility that HUMINT or human assets on the sea and on the ground hostile to the United States could have been in control of these dirigibles and guided them along. Note, that’s a very remote possibility. I seriously doubt, and without close up examination of the gondola-payload, that these platforms used by the CCP were controlled via satellite. The ones used by our forces are controlled via a giant Vectran Fiber-optic tether with electronic communications lines running within the tether and up to the gondola-payload. They don't move beyond the length of the tether. Note that these platforms are fast disappearing as it is more cost effective to place these sensor heads on giant towers with the payload able to move up and down the tower depending on the mission requirement.”
As for the threat posed by the CCP balloon, Dona shared the following:
“It is my technical opinion that there was no viable sensor-head either using acoustic baseforming, IMINT or SIGINT systems on board these CCP Dirigibles. The danger is these gondola-payloads likely were carrying "Cicada drones" or other similar types of mico-surveillance.”
The use of Cicada drones would be of great concern to anyone who understands their specs and capabilities. Deployment of cicada drones from the CCP dirigible, if that is what occurred, would be no small security threat. Articles on Cicada drones can be found here and here.
Chinese micro drones were unveiled at the Abu Dhabi weapons show in March, 2021. They “could rival the Black Hornet Nano used by the United States.” The tiny surveillance drone “named Fengnaio, or hummingbird— is just 17cm longs and weighs 35 grams.”
Dona continues,
“So what that means is the balloon moves over specific targets and deploys these tiny drones that have solar array cells on them for power. They land in fields and rooftops and other areas were sensitive military targets exist. They remain off for a specific time, then are turned on. When in the off state, since they are not transmitting, they are virtually undetectable. They could look like a simple pebble or rock. You just wouldn’t know.”
“Now imagine thousands of these scattered all over our missile silo areas or on military installations. They could turn on, conduct surveillance, transmit the data such as imagery or electronic communications, physical sound, intercept cell tower communications, magnetic, atmospheric, etc etc…then turn off. It would be years before they stop working due to physical failure and/or deliberate sweeps by our guys trying to find them all.”
“The US has had this technology for some time going back to Vietnam. I worked on one of the early developments of this technology with the IREMBASS system. So the proposed methodology I believe they employed was they used the dirigibles to deploy Unattended Ground Sensor Systems i.e. Cicada type drones or something similar. Imagine if these tiny drones are the size of a matchbook and can fly!”
It is important to digest the fact that data collection is not necessarily limited to the span of time the balloon traveled over the U.S. No. The Chinese could have easily taken the longview and scattered these tiny surveillance devices on strategic rooftops only to turn them on at a later date to collect intelligence. This type of plan would most certainly conform with the principles behind Chinese strategic intelligence collection.
With regard to surveillance from the balloon as it moved across the nation and what our defense did about it, Dona explains,
“Our guys likely jammed the navigation on the dirigible. Hacked into the payload. Made sure there was no nuclear, biological or chemical threat within these balloons. Got control of the navigation system. Then steered it over an area where shooting it down would not cause any death or loss of private property on the ground. I noted that several of our SEMA Birds were circling these balloons likely ensuring they did not create a bigger disaster by shooting them down. They made doubly sure it was safe to blow them out of the sky.”
Dona added that it is his technical opinion that “the payload in the gondola that was his greatest concern.” Even Brig. Gen. Spalding and General Michael Flynn mentioned that the balloon would be capable of hauling an EMP. And former DNI Director, John Ratcliffe mentioned some of these potential threats publicly on Sunday’s show with Maria Bartiromo here.
Why Was Balloon Blown Up AFTER It Exited?
So why did the Biden administration decide to shoot the thing to smitereens AFTER it traversed the entire country? Dona offers his opinion on the matter:
“We have defense capablitites that allow us to puncture smaller holes in these dirigibles so that they can then float down to lower altitudes and be captured and tethered by aircraft. If it was truly an intelligence collection operation to allow it to continue maneuvering above the country, then it would make sense for us to bring it down slowly and then examine the dirigible and its contents. We have the capability to recover these dirigibles intact.”
Dona believes the reason Biden did not pull it down was to avoid criticism and political damage. Dona shared that capture of the balloon would have prolonged the news cycle, produced Congressional inquiry unfavorable to the Democrats and Biden, and opened Biden up to much greater scrutiny. When we blew it up on the other side of the country, it disappeared from the news and there is little or no hope of recovering anything meaningful.
Jenkins concurs:
Jack is accurate in his questioning of motive (destroying the airship vs. shooting it down gracefully for a controlled recovery). IF the Administration/Military was interested in assessing the damage done, it would wish to recover the payload long before it (airship) had time to disperse it's cargo (drones, remote sensors, chem/bio agents). Allowing it to cross the Nation and then destroy it— allowing it to fall into the ocean ensures that there is: 1) no payload -- already dispersed, 2) prevents forensic analysis of what equipment may remain, 3) plausable deniability for both the US and CCP of any neferious activity.
The entire balloon event is a gross failure of the National Command Authority and has knowingly placed our county at risk.